July-September growth a no-show: think tanks

Major private-sector think tanks believe the economy remained at zero growth in real terms in the July-September quarter on sluggish exports in the face of a weakening world economy, the average of their latest estimates showed Monday.

The government said earlier the economy shrank at a rate of 0.7 percent in terms of real gross domestic product in the April-June quarter, so if the eight think tanks' estimates prove right, Japan would be able to avert a second straight quarter of economic contraction.

The Cabinet Office is slated to announce the GDP figures for the third quarter on Nov. 17.

"There is still no main driving force of the Japanese economy, so (the Cabinet Office figures) are likely to prove the sluggishness of the Japanese economy," said an analyst at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Of the latest estimates, Mitsubishi Research Institute gave the toughest outlook, saying the economy shrank an estimated 0.3 percent in the July-September quarter from the preceding quarter, or an annualized rate of 1.1 percent.

The estimates forecast that exports, which have propped up the nation's economic expansion since 2001, are likely to remain sluggish, with Mizuho Research Institute saying exports to Europe and the United States, mainly autos, are weakening.