270,000 A-bomb casualties forecast

HIROSHIMA (Kyodo) About 270,000 people in Hiroshima would either be killed or injured if an atomic bomb similar to the one that destroyed the city on Aug. 6, 1945, was dropped on it again, according to a draft report by the municipal civilian protection council.

Even the best national, local and individual efforts would not be enough to mitigate the casualties, and so the only way to protect civilians is to abolish nuclear weapons, the draft concludes.

The report was drafted by a special committee under the civilian protection council and is composed of A-bomb survivors and experts. The council is studying the injuries that could result from a potential nuclear attack and is aiming to put together a civil defense plan.

The central government, based on the Civil Protection Law, has basic guidelines to deal with a nuclear attack.

In line with those guidelines, many local governments are creating their own civil defense plans, which include such items as educating the public on how to protect themselves, evacuation plans, supplies and peacetime practice drills.

The city, however, has voiced concern that moves to prepare for nuclear emergencies could mislead the public into thinking it is possible to escape death or injury in an atomic attack.

Groups of hibakusha have protested that the central government's moves ignore the actual condition of A-bomb victims.

Civil protection involves issuing warnings, carrying out swift evacuations, assisting evacuees and minimizing damage in cooperation with police, firefighters and the Self-Defense Forces.

The special committee was set up to come up with its own findings on potential injuries from a nuclear attack. It estimated injuries according to four scenarios that demonstrate differing types of bomb explosions, using data from the Hiroshima bomb and U.S. nuclear tests.

Under the draft report, the number of envisioned deaths would be about 70,000, which is a substantial drop from the figures for the 1945 Hiroshima bombing. This is being attributed to the now widespread use of concrete in buildings and other factors from Japan's modernization.

But the number of injuries would likely be higher — in excess of 200,000 people — if a bomb with a 16-kiloton yield exploded over the city at an altitude of 600 meters on a sunny day, the report says. The Hiroshima bomb exploded under similar conditions but with a force of 13 kilotons because only 1 kg of its 10 kg to 30 kg of uranium actually fissioned.

By the end of December 1945, about 140,000 of Hiroshima's population of 350,000 had died.

The special committee will finalize the draft report this month. The city plans to finish drafting its civil protection plan by the end of the fiscal year ending next March.