U.S. experts warn of possible crises with China

The energy resource dispute in the East China Sea and Japan's handling of the Taiwan issue are likely to pose thorny questions for new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in addition to the already controversial issue of visits to Yasukuni Shrine, according to U.S. experts on Sino-Japanese relations.

James Kelly, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state, and Alan Romberg, director of the China Program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, address a seminar at New York's Japan Society last month. KYODO PHOTO

Speaking during a recent seminar at New York's Japan Society, James Kelly, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, said he believes the energy issue "has a potential for clashes that can seriously get out of hand."

Tokyo and Beijing have long been at odds over gas exploration rights in the East China Sea, where Japan is concerned that Chinese projects might siphon off resources from beneath waters Japan claims as its own.

The disputed Chunxiao gas field, called Shirakaba by Japan, is located a few kilometers west of the Japan-designated median line separating the two countries' 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zones.

Beijing does not recognize the line and says its EEZ stretches to the edge of the continental shelf, near Okinawa Prefecture.

Kelly said the two nations should sign a treaty similar to the 1972 Incidents at Sea Agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union to help defuse tension.

The treaty was aimed at enhancing awareness and understanding of each other's military activities, such as ballistic missile tests. It provided for advance notice of actions on the high seas potentially hazardous to ships and aircraft.

Alan Romberg, director of the China Program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, a nonprofit public policy institute, believes the Taiwan issue is not going away anytime soon.

Romberg said the inclusion of the Taiwan issue in a U.S.-Japan joint security statement in February 2005 had "great significance" because it was the first time the alliance directly addressed the Taiwan issue.

The statement, issued after a "two-plus-two" meeting of the Japanese and U.S. foreign affairs and defense chiefs, including a provision that a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue is a security objective common to both nations.

The move instantly drew strong criticism from Beijing, which said the provision "infringes on China's sovereignty" and "meddles with its internal affairs."

In the statement, Japan and the United States also agreed to reinforce their alliance under a set of common objectives that take into account China's rising military power and tension across the Taiwan Strait.

Romberg highlighted the fact that Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, maintained "good interactions" with Taiwan throughout his tenure, for example introducing a visa waiver program for Taiwanese tourists.

"Japan is strategically nervous about Taiwan in the hands of the People's Republic of China. Taiwan, after all, was Japan's colonial success story. In 1941, Taiwan had the second-highest living standard in Asia, second only after Japan," observed Michael McDevitt, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the Center for Naval Analysis.

McDevitt said Japan is now facing an increasingly strong China threatening its position as the leader of Asia. Japan is likely to deepen its dependence on the U.S. in a bid to win the competition with China, he said.

"Japan wants constant reassurance that the United States is not going to abandon Tokyo for Beijing. In return, Japan is interested in reassuring the United States it will be a reliable ally," McDevitt said.

Kelly added, however, that "the United States is not served by Sino-Japanese tension," and called on Washington to act quietly and carefully to try to help resolve the differences.

About Yasukuni, Kelly touched on the fact that the shrine was a governmental enterprise before World War II but became a private organization during the U.S. Occupation that mandated that the shrine be separated from the government. Yasukuni Shrine remains a private religious organization to this day.

"In effect . . . Japan has subcontracted its national memorial to the war dead to a particular political group or a group with political interest," Kelly said.

He said the Yasukuni issue is a delicate matter, but the U.S. needs to "quietly encourage" reforms of the shrine, including separating 14 Class-A war criminals from the 2.47 million war dead enshrined there, and also to possibly spin off the shrine's museum glorifying the war.

"Whatever Mr. Abe does with regard to Yasukuni would be a determining factor. If he tries to maintain ambiguity about what he is going to do, I think it would be very difficult for the Chinese to take a chance," Romberg said.