Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009

The prospects for success at the United Nations meeting in December in Copenhagen to devise a global accord to fight global warming appear to be receding. Ironically, one reason for the growing pessimism is the bilateral agreement struck by China and India, two of the world's leading producers of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their deal demands that developed nations take the lead in efforts to slow global warming. It is a signal to the rest of the world that Beijing and Delhi have other options.

High stakes rest on the COP 15 U.N. Climate Change Conference. The meeting is supposed to develop a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the landmark agreement that sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

Unfortunately, the United States, until recently the world's leading GHG emitter, refused to join the Kyoto agreement, arguing that developing economies had to be included in any deal. Kyoto expires in 2012, and the fate of its successor rests on that question: What burden will developing countries bear in the fight against global warming?

Developing economies insist that they should not be forced to reduce emissions to combat a problem they did not create. Despite their many differences on other topics, this issue unites the developing world, as the India-China deal attests. The two countries, who account for about one-quarter of global GHG emissions, signed a memorandum of understanding by which they will coordinate efforts to combat climate change. They will collaborate on renewable power and energy efficiency projects.

Most important, they agreed that it is the primary responsibility of developed countries to deal with this problem and that those same countries should provide financial resources, technology transfers and capacity-building support to developing countries. According to Mr. Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, there is "no difference" between India and China's position on climate change.

The deal is a wake-up call for climate agenda architects. Relations between India and China are quite chilly at present, with the two countries trading insults about hegemonic intentions and being increasingly vocal about military deployments. Striking a deal despite rising tensions is a reminder of the significance of climate change issues, and a signal to other governments that these two players have alternatives with regard to a global deal.

Other regional agreements are in the offing. Members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) expect to finalize a regional environment treaty at their summit next year, and more than 30 African nations agreed in May that development plans should account for the impact of climate change on agriculture, water supply, forests and human health.

Not surprisingly, there is concern about the prospective outcome at Copenhagen. Mr. Yvo De Boer, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, warned that the summit may be "half baked" if developed nations do not step up and take more responsibility for this problem, and that "time is running out." His pessimism is matched by that of Mr. Lu Xuedu, deputy director of China's National Climate Center and a senior official in China's climate talks delegation, who sees "retrogression" in climate talks. Developing countries have been "shocked" by the developing world's demand that they do more, said Mr. Lu. That echoes the view of Mr. Ramesh, who argued that trust between developed and developing nations "broke down" at the last round of climate negotiations.

That has to be fixed, and quickly. According to the U.N., developed nations increased emissions of GHGs in 2007; emissions by the 40 nations classified as industrialized according to the Kyoto Protocol climbed by 1 percent, rising for the seventh consecutive year. China is not one of the 40 nations, but the International Energy Agency says Chinese output of carbon dioxide rose 7.6 percent from 2006 to 2007 and it surpassed the U.S. as the world's leading emitter of GHGs. Experts expect a stall in emissions growth when the 2008 results are released — not because of any new determination to solve the problem but because of the global economic slowdown.

That is not good enough. Growth will resume and that will intensify climate change. Rhetorically, at least, world leaders understand the challenge. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama pledged that Japan would reduce CO₂ emissions to 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 — if a deal is struck in Copenhagen. Chinese President Hu Jintao in September said China would cut emissions in proportion to economic growth, but he did not set specific goals or whether they would be included in a global agreement. U.S. President Barack Obama has warned of the "potentially cataclysmic disaster" threatened by global warming.

Unfortunately, no one leader alone can deliver on those promises. They may have recognized the problem, but they face powerful resistance within their political systems and other constituencies. The sad result is that there is likely to be no resolution at Copenhagen. That does not mean that there will be no agreement; rather, expect a series of incremental steps that keep the negotiating process alive and produce an agreement next year. That might seem like a defeat, but it is far better than a total breakdown and all the disastrous consequences that would follow.

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