Dwindling ability to lead

The mini-reshuffle of the Cabinet this week shows that Prime Minister Taro Aso's power to lead his Liberal Democratic Party in a direction he desires has dwindled. He had sought a substantial reshuffle of both the Cabinet and the party leadership to buoy his administration's sagging approval rate. But resistance from within the LDP left him leeway only to fill two Cabinet posts concurrently held by other ministers.

Mr. Aso picked two LDP legislators to fill the posts of fiscal and economic policy minister and chairman of the National Public Safety Commission. This decision has lightened the load of Mr. Kaoru Yosano, who has played a triple role as finance minister, financial services minister and fiscal and economic policy minister, and the load of internal affairs minister Tsutomu Sato, who has doubled as NPSC chairman.

But Mr. Aso's plan for a change in party leadership almost backfired amid strong opposition within the party. He wanted to fill a party leadership with attractive faces because party executives will play a crucial role in the coming general elections. But he was unable to oust top LDP executives, most notably LDP secretary general Hiroyuki Hosoda, regarded as lacking strong voter appeal. Mr. Aso faced opposition from LDP heavyweights such as former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura.

With Mr. Aso's failure to change the LDP leadership, his preferred political scenario has collapsed. An aide to him said Mr. Aso wanted a newly led party to win the upcoming Shizuoka gubernatorial and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections. He then hoped to use these victories as leverage for dissolving the Lower House and maintaining his administration even after the general elections.

The latest development shows that Mr. Aso will face severe difficulty in taking the initiative to dissolve the Lower House. Although Lower House members' terms will expire in less than two months, he cannot set the date for dissolving the Lower House. This abnormal situation reveals the crippling disarray of Mr. Aso's administration and the LDP.